Comments on: Play It Again, Yingli

By: Pav

Pav — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:54:46 +0000

Thanks for a good article Dan. RE: Steve’s comments, I fail to see how demand and pricing for c-Si could be influenced by thin film yet. One day maybe, but only FSLR and Unisolar are actually making volumes of the stuff in 2008. Next year, who knows what the output of the new AMAT and Oerlikon plants, operated by new entrants, will be? In the long run there are serious questions about market niches for different technologies and whether a utility-scale project market can exist without subsidy.

One question - what are “Travis dollars”? I know Bradford but am not familiar with this designation. Thanks a lot.

By: daniel englander

daniel englander — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:37:06 +0000

Dude, you’re kind of weirding me out with all this “young” and “tender age” stuff. This is a family website.

By: Steve Pluvia

Steve Pluvia — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:27:34 +0000

Young Dan; Sorry to embarrass you once again but… Demand markets are not dry, you simply don’t understand the demand curve for PV.

Demand is based on price; at YSE’s last Q Avg Sales Price [ASP] of $3.90ish/watt demand is limited by subsides. At FSLR last Q ASP of $2.20ish demand is U N L I M I T E D because they can install this PV at grid parity — which is approx $3.50/watt [$2.20 pv cost $1.30 install cost/watt]

All of the thin film mfgr’s identified i.e. AMAT plants = approx 2gw/yr; Sharp = 1 gw/yr; FSLR Nanosolar [potential 1gw/yr], Shell [1gw/yr] etc, etc can produce PV that can be installed at grid parity prices while producing nice profit margins for the mfgr.

Demand for YGE’s overpriced PV will be limited or non-existent as thin film from the above lo-cost sources comes to market. But to be clear, demand for YGE’s product is not slowing because Korean and Spanish subsidies may be cut; demand is slowing for YGE because lo-cost PV is putting YGE out of business.

Regarding installed costs: please see the install video of AMAT’s 380 watt panel; note it requires 1/3 the hardware and wiring connections of a YGE panel — thus install costs are much lower for this thin film panel than for YGE’s panel. [it is clear from your reply you don't understand the cost break down for installed PV e.g. PV panel + mounting hardware + inverter, but I'll save you further embarrassment by demonstrating this point]

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/products/solar_sunfab_3.html

School’s out [again] Danny-boy.

By: daniel englander

daniel englander — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:56:35 +0000

You’re wrong. (1) Yingli is cutting neither production nor sales. (2) You need almost two First Solar panels at 75 watts (for the top of the line panel) to equal one Yingli panel at 125 watts. So installed costs would be roughly equal. None of this matters if the demand markets are dry, which was the point here.

I’d stick with flipping houses if I were you.

By: Steve Pluvia

Steve Pluvia — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:46:36 +0000

Daniel, let me amend: thin film coming from multiple other sources including AMAT plants, FSLR, Shell’s 1gw CIS plant, possibly Nanosolar, Sharp, etc, etc, etc…

By: Steve Pluvia

Steve Pluvia — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:55:25 +0000

Daniel, once again your wholesale lack of solar industry understanding has you drawing ridiculous conclusions. YGE produces c-Si products; c-Si production costs are between $2-$2.20/watt while thin film production costs are between $1.10 and $1.25.

c-Si producers are facing extreme cost competition from thin film product coming from new AMAT plants and FSLR which can essentially be sold/installed at grid parity prices — as demonstrated by FSLR. That means thin film PV coming from these sources has a ASP [avg sales price] about the same as c-Si producer’s production costs. i.e c-Si = zero profit margins.

YGE is not slowing production because Spanish and Korean tarrifs are dropping, its lowering production because they can’t cost compete with a wave of new thin film coming to market. Until c-Si co’s adopt new tech e.g. umg, they’re in heap-um big trouble. Expect all c-Si production volume to slow and thin film with production costs close to $1/watt to expand rapidly. School’s out for now Dan.