Michael Kanellos
February 5 is China Solar Equality Day, sort of May 13, 2008 at 9:08 AM
What if you took all the factory capacity in the world to make solar cells and harnessed it to produce renewable energy systems for China. How long would the total output last?
A little over five weeks. Globally, there will be approximately 10.25 gigawatts worth of solar panel manufacturing capacity in the world in 2008, according to the Prometheus Institute. The figure includes both thin film and traditional silicon panels.
China meanwhile dedicates 2GW worth of power plants a week. 10.25 divided by two gives you 36 days. If you could make all the panels and start shipping January 1, it would get you to February 5, give or take a few hours depending on what happens on Groundhog Day.
Not all of the capacity can or will be utilized. The world had 6.175 megawatts worth of solar panel manufacturing capacity in 2007 and only 3.7 megawatts actually made it out the factory door. Thus, this year’s China Solar Equality Day (my own term) was January 22. In 2010, manufacturing capacity will be in the 12GW to 15GW range, or between Valentine’s D
ay and President’s Day.
The figures are either depressing or hopeful, depending on your point of view. For the depressing side, it’s clear that coal and gas are here to stay for a while. Although China has begun to take action on emissions, the country will not likely drastically put the brakes on the current growth of its power infrastructure, which fuels the country’s economic growth. And you can’t just blame them. India, the U.S. and Europe will continue to expand consumption of fossil fuels. (People outraged by this should feel free to move to the woods and raise yams.) If you compared total solar output with energy demand worldwide, the crossover point would probably occur sometime between the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Parade.
On the other hand, look at the opportunity. Solar panels, wind and solar thermal combined produce less than 0.005 percent of the energy consumed globally every year, according to Ripudaman Malhotra, who oversees research on fossil fuels at SRI International. (Click the link for an overview of Malhotra’s analysis on energy consumption, a prelude to a book he’s writing later this year.) There’s plenty of room to grow. The solar figures will also grow in the next five years as those large 300MW to 500MW solar thermal plants start going up. China doesn’t sit in a zone that’s optimal for solar thermal, but good conditions exist in India, Northern Africa, Australia and the American Southwest.
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[...] to churn out 5 GW worth of solar panels a year. By the end of the year, there will only be around 10.25 GW worth of capacity worldwide and the figure is expected to only go to aorund 15 GW by 2012, not [...]