Daniel Englander

$500/kg Poly on the Agenda at Munich Solar Conference April 2, 2008 at 11:38 AM

The 6th Photon Consulting Silicon Conference is happening this week in Munich. While reports from the conference floor have been sporadic, we were able to get a hold of intel from Jeff Osbourne at Thomas Weisel Partners. Jeff reports he has “seen several data points of spot polysilicon pricing in excess of $500/kg”; a price point that is wholly unsustainable given the continually shrinking margins in cell manufacturing. Jeff does think the high spot prices benefit poly produces selling into that market, like MEMC.

Tuesday was supply day at the conference. While “no major polysilicon expansion plans [were] announced at the conference” there were many announcements of “projects under ‘consideration,’” according to Jeff. Hemlock Semiconductor mentioned they were “considering” an additional expansion beyond 2012, while DC Chemical was “considering” an expansion aimed at deliveries in late 2010. A lack of firm commitments to expand is indicative of the growing concern over a possible oversupply hitting the market sometime between 2009 and 2012 - Jeff sees “an over supply emerging in late 2009 or early 2010,” though he also see an “upside from strong demand and pricing trends.”

Major conference fun was had through a group trashing of metallurgical silicon. Jeff thinks “the product can be used as a blend in the 10-20% range with minimal difficulty; however, the problem appears to lie when it is used over 50% by cell and module companies.” Even Dow Chemical - a metallurgical silicon leader - called “metallurgical silicon a blending feed stock rather than a replacement technology.” Both Globe Metals and Timmonico presented on the increasing purity of their metallurgical silicon, though Timmonico reps acknowledged “their Phosphorous levels were still too high for wide scale success.” The lack of detailed data from Dow Chemical is likely indicative of the company’s failure to significantly reduce boron and phosphorous levels.

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